Determinación del impacto del Impuesto a la Salida de Divisas (ISD) sobre el valor de las importaciones no petroleras del Ecuador en el período 2000 - 2012

Abstract

In late 2007 the Currency Outflow Tax (ISD for its acronym in Spanish) was created with the aim of reducing the outflow of dollars from the Ecuadorian Economy, mainly the ones originated from transfers. One year later, the Tax was reformed to include the currency outflow through Imports, principally Non-oil Imports. This paper aims to find out whether ISD has influenced in the level of Non-oil Imports using econometric methods. This study proposes a model for Non-oil Imports that depend on Income and Real Exchange Rate and that includes the ISD as independent variable to determine its influence on Non-oil Imports. Data was obtained from the Central Bank of Ecuador and from the Internal Revenue Service. Then, a basic regression was estimated, Unit root and Cointegration tests were performed before Granger Causality Test and Error Correction Model were estimated. At the end, results are presented and analyzed.