La incidencia del factor demográfico en el sistema de pensiones en las regiones 1, 2, 3 y 4 de Ecuador, periodo 2010-2040

Abstract

This paper studies the financial sustainability in the long term pension Ecuadorian Social Security from demographic conditioning, that is to say, the number of contributors and pensioners, understanding that the first cover spending seconds. Thus, the study is aimed at determining the impact of demographic factor for the pension system in regions 1, 2, 3 and 4 of Ecuador in the period 2010-2040. The methodology developed is based on the calculation of projections by Barea. This starts with the calculation of the number of contributors by the demographic factor (15 to 59 years) multiplied by the growth rate of the economically active population (EAP); then the number of pensioners (range more than 60 years population) is taken; and finally, the expenditure to be financed by contributors within each region for thirty years horizon is projected. From the results, it is concluded that the Social Security system is sustainable in the long term sine qua non reformatory new policies involving an unsustainability of it.