Modelación hidrológica de los impactos potenciales del cambio climático y cambio de uso del suelo en la cuenca del Río Cañar, Ecuador

Abstract

Abstract:This study used the Water Evaluation and Planning System (WEAP) hydrological model to determine the impact of climate change and land use on water supply by the year 2040. Hydro-meteorological information was collected for the period 1985 - 2010, as well as the cartography of the study area that served as support for the implementation of the model. The trend of precipitation, temperature and flow variables on a monthly scale were analyzed using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall test with a statistical significance of ∞=0.05 using the TREND hydrological software. The dynamics produced in the land use of the basin during the period 1990-2010, its trend and scenario prediction was performed using SELVA IDRISI software. The performance results of the hydrological model yielded a value of 0.54 for NashSutcliffe and 0.56 for the quadratic error method (R2), which are interpreted as satisfactory. Under the climate change scenario, the model shows an annual increase of 1% but with a strong variation in the monthly distribution, since from March to May concentrates 70% of the flow, being very critical during the dry season, especially in November and December. The second scenario estimated a 6% decrease in flow. These values may be conditioned by the adjustment made to the soil parameters (forcing variables) during model calibration.