Cointegración de panel para un modelo de convergencia económica en las provincias de Ecuador

Abstract

Abstract: The objective of this research is to provide empirical evidence on economic convergence of the average labour productivity of the provinces of Ecuador with respect to Pichincha and Guayas as leading economies in the period 2012-2020. To this end, we apply a stochastic methodology using five unit root tests (Levin, Lin & Chu (2002), Im, Pesaran & Shin (2003), ADF-Fisher, Breitung (2000) and PP-Fisher), the Bernard & Durlauf (1995) convergence test and seven cointegration tests proposed by Pedroni (1999). In the first case, there is evidence of a decrease in disparities with respect to the leading provinces under the convergence weight of the unit root tests over the period 2012-2020. As for the Bernard and Durlauf approach, it yielded evidence in favour of the divergence hypothesis in the same period for both Pichincha and Guayas. Similarly, the Pedroni cointegration test showed evidence in favour of the absolute convergence hypothesis in six and four out of seven statistics, for Pichincha and Guayas respectively.