Gasto de consumo final de los hogares ecuatorianos, modelización y predicción: periodo 1960 - 2021

Abstract

Abstract: The purpose of this research work is to carry out a descriptive and analysis through time series of the variable: final consumption expenditure of households at Nacional level. We describe the variable, its meaning, the other variables that compose it, what variables can affect it and on which it is dependent. We also describe how It is your estimate, as well as the modifications it has received in recent years. Once described the series, the objective of the work is focused on trying to predict values ​​of the cost of household final consumption by applying the Box-Jenkins methodology, we estimate the most appropriate optimal ARIMA model to make predictions, we validate it and we statistically justify its priority for the realization of future predictions; based on variables such as salary, consumption and inflation.