Aplicación del teorema de Bayes en la bolsa de valores del Ecuador

Abstract

Abstract: The objective of the research was the application of Bayes' theorem in the Quito stock exchange. The study was carried out with a descriptive methodology quantitative, collecting prices from companies such as: Produbanco, Holcim and Favorite Corporation, for each sector that makes up the Ecuadorian stock index, as well The prices of the latter were also taken into account. The research focuses on the collection of historical price data, its evaluation using the theorem of Bayes and the analysis of the results obtained to determine the effectiveness of the study. It is determined that the research is successful, since 57% effectiveness was obtained, it is necessary to complement with other tools or approaches to have an analysis more complete and precise. The scope is limited to the evaluation of this specific relationship and does not extend to other variables or factors that may influence the price of the Actions.