Determinantes Económicos e Institucionales de la Capacidad Fiscal: El caso Ecuatoriano durante el período 1990 a 2020

Abstract

Abstract: Fiscal capacity is understood as the government's ability to collect resources. necessary to finance their activities, so their funding is subject to various factors that condition it, including economic and institutional factors. Is so the objective of this work is to verify through an econometric model of Autoregressive Vectors (VAR) how certain economic and institutional variables affect in fiscal capacity in Ecuador during the period from 1990 to 2020, among them, the price of commodities, inflation, the level of development of individuals, commercial openness, level of corruption, the level of equality, constitutional changes, the existence of social protests and presidential changes. The results obtained give us the expected signs and those proposed by economic theory and empirical evidence warn us, That is, variables such as inflation, corruption, level of equality, social protests, constitutional changes and trade opening negatively affect the fiscal capacity of the Ecuador, however, its effects in some cases are not immediate. Furthermore, it is noted through the Johansen cointegration test that, between the economic and institutional and fiscal capacity there is a long-term relationship, however, it is exclude institutional variables related to stability from the long-term relationship political.