Relación entre el ciclo económico y fluctuaciones del desempleo en el caso ecuatoriano durante el periodo 1991 - 2022

Abstract

Abstract: The general objective of this research project is to evaluate the relationship between the economic cycle and unemployment fluctuations during the period 1991-2022 with the purpose of analyzing the effects of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the Active Population (PA) on the unemployment rate, for this a Vector Autoregressive Model (VAR) was applied using the STATA program to analyze the fluctuations of the business cycle and the unemployment through the impulse-response function, where the existence was determined of an indirect unidirectional relationship between the unemployment rate and GDP, therefore, confirms the empirical validity of Okun's Law for the Ecuadorian economy. Finally, in Regarding the presence of shocks in GDP and changes in the active population, it was established that does not affect the behavior of the unemployment rate, remaining stable throughout the year. time.