Análisis de la variación del consumo de los combustibles frente a fluctuaciones en sus precios, periodo 2019-2022

Abstract

Abstract: This work thoroughly examines the dynamics of local fuel consumption and the international price of oil, fusing disciplines such as consumer theory, economic theory and time series analysis. In this sense, the objective of the The research was to analyze the variation in fuel consumption during the period 2019- 2022 in the context of fluctuations in international oil prices, through the estimation of a VAR (Vector AutoRegressive) model and the analysis of causalities Granger, focused on the period 2019-2022, using a quantitative-descriptive approach. Among the results, it could be observed that the VAR model estimated complex relationships, such as the negative correlation between current and previous consumption, suggesting price responses higher. Likewise, the Granger causality test confirmed a connection bidirectional between domestic consumption and the international price of oil, which highlights the economic vulnerability of Ecuador, which depends largely on exports of oil to earn income. For this reason, the research highlights the need to policies that diversify the energy matrix and reduce dependence on oil.