El efecto del precio del petróleo en el crecimiento económico del Ecuador. Periodo 1972-2015

Abstract

The objective of the investigation is to examine the effect of oil price on Ecuador's economic growth in the period 1972-2015, using secondary information compiled by the World Bank and the Central Bank of Ecuador. The methodology used is an autoregressive vector model (VAR), which allows us to capture the effect of oil price and other macroeconomic variables considered in the model on economic growth. The results show a significant influence of oil prices, while the impact of the other variables of the variable exchange rate index (ITC) and consumer price index (CPI) is negative. When considering the influence of oil prices on economic growth, it is necessary to implement public policies that prevent impacts from variation or external factors that cause variations in oil prices and therefore have effects on the Ecuadorian economy.