Determinación de caudales extremos mediante modelización hidrológica y análisis de escenarios

Abstract

The HEC-HMS model was applied in the basin of Zarumilla river to simulate the flows that would occur with a maximum precipitation event, with a duration of 6 hours and for return periods of 25, 50 and 100 years. The model was calibrated using a frequency analysis of the hydrometric information available for La Palma station. The model was successfully executed and the maximum flow rates of the basin were 1100 m3/s for 25 years, 1290 m3/s for 50 years and 1670 m3/s for 100 years. In the same basin, a land use scenario was generated for the year 2027 using information from 2014 and 2017. The transitions with the greatest area of influence observed were pasture to cultivation, forest to crop and pasture. Other classifications do not show a significant change. The calculated flows with the coverage of the generated scenario are smaller than those calculated for 2017, due to the expansion of the crops, which are mostly fruit type. In spite of this, the variation of flows is not very significant.