Estimación de caudales máximos, medios anuales y determinación de la eficiencia del modelo auto regresivo de media móvil en la cuenca del río Puyango

Abstract

Abstract: Water resources are used in a consumptive and non-consumptive way, through planning, construction, conduction, regulation of suitable hydraulic works to satisfy demand or protect the population in cases of excess water supply; The Civil Engineer requires historical records of precipitation or runoff to determine the design flows necessary for the sizing and subsequent construction of the different hydraulic structures. In the country, the historical hydrological records are scarce or null spatially and temporally; Therefore, it is necessary to use techniques to try to cover this lack of updated information through probabilistic laws, which are used by stochastic hydrology. In this research, series of annual mean and maximum synthetic flows will be generated in the Puyango river basin, through the AR (p) and ARMA (p, q) models, whose base information is obtained from the automatic hydrological station H0591, and the series generated will be evaluated by the Akaike Information Criterion (CIA) to determine their quality and reliability in the management of water resources in the Puyango river basin.