Modelo de predicción de insolvencia para las cooperativas de ahorro y crédito, segmento 3, del Sistema Financiero Popular y Solidario, período 2016-2019.

Abstract

Abstract:This study examined the variables that affect the probability of bankruptcy of the Savings and Credit Cooperatives, segment 3 of the Popular and Solidarity Financial System, in the period 2016-2019, using the Ohlson Model. The variables used were the size of the companies, indebtedness, solvency, liquidity, profitability, operating profit, and net income, in addition to the dummy variables used in the logit model. A bankruptcy probability of 38.08% was reached, in the original model, to later reach a 50% adjustment with the re-estimation of the variables. When reestimated, the model acquires more favorable parameters than the original model. A correlation was made between the variables where the highest correlation index was obtained between the net profit and the operability of the assets, as well as in operating profit and benefits paid to employees. In addition to the calculations, the result was compared with different studies where they used the same model, noting the need to be careful when applying models already estimated, since the probable result sometimes does not fit what is being examined.