Modelos matemáticos convencionales para la evaluación de la dinámica del brote de COVID-19 en la Provincia de Chimborazo

Abstract

Abstract:The constant growth of COVID-19 cases is a fact that worldwide generates uncertainty in decision-making by international-al, national and local organizations, which allow to counteract the effects that a pandemic has on the health of the inhabit-ants and that this in turn slows down the economic development of society. The need to know the dynamics of the virus outbreak in the province, on the part of authorities, is increasing, so its evaluation is proposed through mathematical models such as: the exponential model, the logistic model, the differential logistic model and Hill's model. From the data collection in the repository of the National Service of Risk and Emergency Management of Ecuador and its evaluation in the Wolfram Mathematica software, it was possible to show that the Hill model is better adjusted to the dynamics of the virus in the province, with an average contagion time of 234.21 and a saturation of the curve of 5319.34, proposing it as a modeling solution.