Modelos financieros y su aporte en la predicción del fracaso empresarial de las empresas manufactureras del Ecuador, en el periodo 2015 2019

Abstract

Abstract:Business failure has been a topic of interest since the 1960s and its research has led to the creation of models for the detection of financial problems. This research validates the Altman and Ohlson models for the Ecuadorian manufacturing industry; it also proposes the development of a new model for the prediction of bankruptcy in a sample of 1958 companies, of which 56 present difficulties in 2019 and 69 in 2020. The results confirm an overall accuracy of 92.19% in Altman's Z2 model, 98.96% in Ohlson and 99.28% in the proposed model; and a predictive accuracy for companies that present difficulties of 50% in Altman, 39.69% in Ohlson and 55.73% in the proposed model; confirming more solid results in this one. The significant variables to explain the probability of failure were current liquidity, profit reinvestment ROA, asset turnover, the size variable proposed by Ohlson and GDP, all having a negative relationship; while the significant variables with a positive relationship were solvency and average collection term.