Evaluación de los Efectos de Riesgos Financieros en las entidades financieras de la economía popular y solidaria del segmento 3 durante el periodo 2016 2019

Abstract

Abstract: The financial entities of the popular and solidarity economy of segment 3, under the supervision of the Superintendency of Popular and Solidarity Economy - SEPS, face a series of risks due to the nature of their business line, which is financial intermediation. These risks include financial risks, specifically credit risk and liquidity risk that, if considered high, may not only lead to sanctions or interventions on said entities, but may even lead to their closure. For this, there are valuation methods such as the Ohlson Model (O - Score) or the Altman Model (Z - Score) with which the probability of closure of an entity can be found according to certain variables and financial indicators. The results produced by these models are that the entities in segment 3 under the O - Score present a low average probability of closing that corresponds to 10.06% and with the Z - Score there is an average probability of 29.5% of entities that are in a high-risk bankruptcy area. To conclude, a linear regression is presented, the result of which is that the financial indicator ROE has a direct impact on the Z - Score model, which is the model that best fits to assess the risks indicated.