La relación entre la tasa de interés y la inversión. El caso de Ecuador

Abstract

Abstract: This research examines the relationship between interest rates and investment in Ecuador during the period 2000 2022. Building on classical and contemporary theoretical foundations, it explores the short- and long-term dynamics between these key economic variables. The study employs a quantitative methodological approach, utilizing econometric models such as Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) and cointegration techniques to identify structural equilibrium relationships over time. The inverse relationship between interest rates and investment is central to economic theory. Using data from the Central Bank of Ecuador, the study analyzes how fluctuations in real interest rates affect gross fixed capital formation in a dollarized context, where monetary policies are shaped by external factors. The research includes a comprehensive time series analysis, applying unit root and cointegration tests to determine the nature of the relationships between the variables. The findings confirm that, in the long run, real interest rates and investment are cointegrated, indicating a stable equilibrium relationship. In the short term, the dynamics between these variables also reflect the sensitivity of investment decisions to changes in financing costs. This research seeks to provide tools to strengthen economic stability and foster sustainable growth in the country.