Evaluación de la posible amenaza por inundaciones del río Jipiro en la ciudad de Loja

Abstract

Abstract: The study assessed the flood hazard in the Jipiro River watershed using geomorphological indices, heuristic methods, and hydraulic modeling with HEC-RAS. It was determined that the watershed has an elongated shape (Gravelius coefficient: 1.24; shape factor: 0.49) with predominantly gentle slopes (4.83%), which favor water retention in low-lying areas. However, in specific sections, the slope reaches 37.85%, indicating abrupt relief. The MCE and HER-CAS models identified three significant hazard levels. Low-hazard areas cover 27.66 km² (84.5%), characterized by good drainage and steep slopes that minimize water accumulation. Medium-hazard areas extend over 4.67 km² (14.3%), with limited drainage and moderate slopes, making them vulnerable to heavy rainfall. High-hazard areas, covering 0.37 km² (1.2%), are located near the river channel, where low altitude, poor rainage capacity, and proximity to the main stream result in a high probability of severe flooding.