La relación entre el comercio y el empleo agrícola en los países de Sudamérica periodo 2010-2020.

Abstract

Abstract: This research analyzes the complex relationship between trade and agricultural employment in South America, examining its determinants for nine countries (2000-2022) using a dynamic fixed effects panel model (GMM). The main findings reveal that the dynamics of sectoral employment are not dominated by trade flows, but by forces of internal structural transformation. Increased labor productivity and GDP per capita growth emerge as the factors with the most significant negative impact on the employment rate. Trade, for its part, exhibits a paradoxical effect: while greater total volume is positively associated with employment, greater export orientation is negatively correlated. The fundamental contribution of this study is the empirical evidence demonstrating that the influence of trade is secondary compared to technological modernization and the concentration on low-labor-intensive commodities. It is concluded that the decline in employment is a structural phenomenon, making the management of technological transition more critical than policies focused solely on trade.