Factores criminológicos y consolidación territorial del crimen organizado en Puerto Bolívar, Ecuador

Abstract

Abstract: This research analyzes the territorial consolidation of organized crime in Puerto Bolívar, known as Ecuador's second largest seaport, focusing on the period 2020-2025. Through a quantitative case study with a longitudinal perspective, it examines how the convergence of geopolitical, economic, port-related, and institutional factors creates conditions conducive to criminal activity in this strategic territory. The analysis reveals significant intra-parish spatial heterogeneity, with circuits experiencing differentiated patterns of lethal violence attributable to specific criminogenic characteristics of each sector. In the case of the Puerto Bolívar circuit, the highest incidence is concentrated due to its port infrastructure and vulnerable informal economies, taking into account extreme volatility indicative of violent territorial disputes between competing criminal organizations. The findings confirm that the fragmentation of cartels following the peace agreements, the Ecuadorian prison crisis, and the logistical advantages of port infrastructure for drug trafficking converged, generating territorial criminal consolidation. Differentiated recommendations are formulated according to the level of intervention, emphasizing that purely punitive responses are insufficient without addressing the multi-level structural causes that produce and sustain these criminological phenomena.