Despoblación escolar en zonas rurales del Ecuador: Análisis de la disminución de la matrícula Escolar en la provincia de Loja, período 2011-2023

Abstract

Abstract: The progressive decline in school enrollment, especially in rural areas, is a social problem that affects the socioeconomic fabric of a nation. The overall objective of the study was to determine the effect of rural depopulation on educational supply and demand in rural areas of Ecuador, with an emphasis on rural areas in the province of Loja (2011-2023). Official databases from the Ministry of Education were statistically processed using a multilevel model, which allowed for an examination of the evolution of the total number of students enrolled at both the provincial and parish levels. The results showed that most of the variability was concentrated between cantons at the national level and between parishes in the province of Loja, which explained more than 90% of the total variance in the logarithm of rural enrollment. In addition, it was observed that the decline in enrollment was temporarily conditioned by factors such as low-income levels in rural areas, migration, and policies focused on educational reorganization. In conclusion, rural depopulation generated lower demand for education, which led to lower coverage and continuity of the rural education system.