Despoblación escolar en Zonas Rurales del Ecuador: Análisis de la disminución de la matrícula escolar en Bolívar (2011-2023).

Abstract

Abstract: This research analyses school depopulation in the rural areas of Bolívar province between 2011 and 2023, a period marked by an almost 15% decline in enrolment in Basic Education and Upper Secondary education. Using an applied quantitative approach, the study relies on secondary data from the Ministry of Education and the National Institute of Statistics and combines descriptive trend analysis with multilevel models that capture the hierarchical structure parish canton province. The results show that the drop in rural enrolment is associated with precarious school infrastructure, multidimensional poverty, rural urban migration flows and the cultural devaluation of local rural education. The study concludes that reversing school depopulation requires rural education policies with a territorial approach, priority investment in services and infrastructure, and retention strategies that connect schools with communities and with training opportunities that are relevant for rural youth.