Despoblación escolar en zonas rurales del Ecuador: análisis de la disminución de la matrícula escolar (2011-2023)

Abstract

Abstract: This study analyzes school depopulation throughout rural Ecuador from 2011 to 2023, with particular emphasis on the province of Chimborazo. Using a quantitative approach together with multilevel models, it examines the evolution of school enrollment at three hierarchical levels (parish, canton, and province). The results show a steady decline in rural enrollment of 1.25%, although inequality in the area is high. The Multilevel Model revealed that 18.6% of the variance is explained by differences between cantons, while the residual Intracluster Correlation Coefficient of 0.6% confirms temporal stability within each parish. Three pairs of opposing downward rates were determined, including: accelerated (3-4% annually), moderate (1-1.5% annually), and mild (0.5-1% annually), which illustrate the differentiated territorial dynamics based on demographic, migratory, and socioeconomic factors. School depopulation is not an isolated phenomenon, but rather the culmination of a socio-spatial reconfiguration phenomenon derived from rural-urban migration, declining birth rates, and the concentration of educational policies. The study illustrates the immediate need for public policies to be contextualized to specific rural territories in order to promote the integration of these rural territories into socio-ecological development.