Despoblación escolar en zonas rurales del Ecuador: Análisis de la disminución de la matrícula escolar (2011-2023), Esmeraldas

Abstract

Abstract: The general objective of this research is to analyze the socioeconomic and demographic determinants influencing school depopulation in rural areas of the province of Esmeraldas during the period 2011 2023. Using a quantitative approach and administrative data from the Ministry of Education (MINEDUC) and the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INEC), multilevel models were estimated, confirming the central hypothesis: rural enrollment declined on average at a compound annual rate of approximately 1.2%, with heterogeneous patterns across territories, both at the national level and within the province of Esmeraldas. This process of school depopulation was associated with factors such as declining fertility rates, forced migration driven by insecurity, structural poverty, and the progressive closure of educational institutions. The main conclusion is that the sustainability of rural education in Ecuador does not depend solely on national demographic trends, but rather on deeply unequal local dynamics, which call for territorially targeted, focused, and rights-based educational policies.