Despoblación escolar en zonas rurales del Ecuador: Análisis de la disminución de la matrícula escolar en la provincia Santa Elena (2011-2023)

Abstract

Abstract: This study examined the impact of rural depopulation on school enrollment in the province of Santa Elena, Ecuador, during the period 2011 2023, using a quantitative approach based on administrative data from the National Institute of Statistics (INEC) and the Ministry of Education. Multilevel regression models were applied to estimate territorial variation and to determine the demographic effects on educational demand. The results showed a significant decline in rural enrollment nationwide and substantial internal heterogeneity in Santa Elena, where parishes accounted for most of the variability, confirming that territorial structure strongly shapes educational access. The analysis revealed that migration, declining birth rates, and school reorganization policies explained the downward trend, while only a few parishes with better connectivity maintained enrollment stability. These findings met the study s objectives and confirmed the hypothesis that rural depopulation directly reduces school enrollment. The study provides empirical evidence to inform territorialized educational policies aimed at strengthening the sustainability of rural education.