Incidencia del cash-flow en la probabilidad de quiebra en las empresas del sector C, de la provincia Guayas de Ecuador, períodos 2019 - 2023

Abstract

Abstract: This study analyzed the impact of cash flow on the probability of bankruptcy of companies in the C commercial sector of the Naranjal canton, Guayas province, during the period 2019-2023. A quantitative, correlational, and longitudinal approach was used, based on information obtained from the Superintendency of Companies. Indicators of liquidity, profitability, indebtedness, and operational efficiency were applied, as well as Altman's Z-score model. The results demonstrated a significant relationship between cash flow management, especially operating cash flow, and financial stability. Low liquidity levels, prolonged cash conversion cycles, high dependence on external financing, and inventory turnover deficiencies increase the risk of insolvency. Furthermore, the study found that proper cash flow management strengthens the capacity to meet financial obligations, improves strategic decision-making, promotes operational sustainability, and reduces the probability of bankruptcy. The study provides relevant local empirical evidence that supports the use of cash flow as a fundamental tool for the early assessment of financial risk and the design of preventive strategies aimed at preserving the competitiveness, solvency and continuity of companies in the analyzed sector.