Despoblación escolar en zonas rurales del Ecuador: Análisis de la disminución de la matrícula Escolar (2011- 2023)

Abstract

Abstract: This study analyzes in depth the decline in school enrollment in rural areas of Ecuador, with special emphasis on the progressive decrease in enrollment recorded between 2011 and 2023. Using a quantitative approach and multilevel econometric models implemented in STATA, the study examines educational dynamics at different territorial levels national, provincial, cantonal, and parish in order to identify the structural, demographic, and socioeconomic factors that influence the reduction in the number of enrolled students. The results show a persistent downward trend in rural enrollment, which is significantly related to internal and external migration processes, population aging, low population density, limitations in infrastructure and educational offerings, as well as the persistence of territorial inequalities that affect rural communities more severely. The analysis developed allows us to understand how these variables interact with each other, affecting student retention and deepening the educational gaps historically present between urban and rural areas.