Despoblación Escolar en Zonas Rurales del Ecuador: Análisis de la Disminución de la Matrícula Escolar (2011- 2023). Galápagos

Abstract

Abstract: This study analyzed the evolution of school enrollment in rural areas of the Galápagos Islands between 2011 and 2023, in order to identify patterns of school depopulation and their relationship with territorial dynamics. The literature review showed that the decline in enrollment is due to structural factors such as demographic exodus, school closures, and infrastructure limitations. A quantitative approach was used, applying hierarchical multilevel models (HLM) to decompose the variance of total enrolled students by canton and parish, using data from the Ministry of Education and the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses. The findings show a decreasing trend in school enrollment in rural areas and intraclass correlation coefficients that demonstrated that the territorial structure explained much of the observed variability, showing that school depopulation in the Galápagos was not a random phenomenon. It was concluded that school depopulation in the Galápagos requires specific interventions, with public policies aimed at guaranteeing the right to education, promoting school retention as the core of sociodemographic sustainability.