Despoblación escolar en zonas rurales del Ecuador: Análisis de la disminución de la matrícula escolar (2011 - 2023), provincia de Sucumbíos

Abstract

Abstract: The general objective of this research was to examine the magnitude and determining factors of school depopulation in rural areas of the province of Sucumbíos, during the period 2011-2023. The study analyzed the sustained decrease in enrollment not as an isolated event, but as a complex structural process, exacerbated by the tensions between educational centralization policies and local demographic dynamics in the Amazon region. Methodologically, a longitudinal quantitative approach was applied using hierarchical multilevel models at three levels (parish, canton, and province), processing official data from INEC and MINUEDUC. The analyses carried out using the Intraclass Correlation Coefficient (ICC) show that the variation in enrollment rates is not mainly due to aggregate differences between cantons (ICC < 0.20). Conversely, 97.3% of this variability is linked to persistent structural inequalities between parishes. This finding reveals that the educational gap is shaped by a dynamic of internal center-rural polarization: while the cantonal capitals concentrate both the supply and demand for education, rural parishes experience a sustained process of depopulation and marginalization. The research justifies the urgent need to move from policies of school closures toward territorial governance strategies that guarantee educational equity and the cultural survival of rural populations.