La evolución del sector agroexportador en Ecuador y su contribución al PIB: Un análisis del comercio de banano y camarón (2010-2024)

Abstract

Abstract: This paper analyzes the evolution of international trade in bananas and shrimp in Ecuador and their contribution to Gross Domestic Product (GDP) during the period 2010 2024. Both products have become the country's main non-oil exports, with a significant impact on foreign exchange earnings and national economic performance. The objective is achieved by estimating a multiple linear regression model using quarterly FOB export data for bananas and shrimp, along with control variables: public spending and oil exports, and a dummy variable that reflects the effect of the pandemic. The results clearly demonstrate the impact of shrimp exports on Ecuador's GDP and, similarly, but to a lesser extent, the contribution of bananas to economic growth; all these results are supported by a robust econometric model with a significance level that validates the conclusions. The research provides useful empirical evidence for the formulation of public policies aimed at strengthening these sectors and improving the competitiveness of Ecuadorian foreign trade.