La incidencia de las exportaciones de productos agrícolas en el crecimiento económico del Ecuador. El caso de las fibras vegetales, período 2000 2022

Abstract

Abstract: This research represents a very important analysis, as it highlights the impact of agricultural exports on Ecuador's economic growth, with an emphasis on vegetable fibers during the period 2000 2022. At a time when diversifying the production matrix is ​​a national objective, the study addresses vegetable fibers as a sustainable and value-added alternative to non-traditional agricultural exports. From a theoretical perspective, it is based on international trade and the theory of endogenous growth, which recognizes the contribution of exports to driving economic growth. The type of econometric model used was multiple linear regression, employing agricultural GDP and vegetable fiber exports as dependent variables, and international prices as independent variables. The results obtained by applying the aforementioned model revealed an adjusted coefficient (R²) of 91%, thus reflecting an excellent relationship between the variables studied. It was determined that the price of the fiber is a statistically significant determining factor in the growth of agricultural GDP, while the value of exports showed a positive (although not significant) relationship at the 95% confidence level. This quantitative analysis was linked to a strategic diagnosis of the sector, which led to the formulation of actions in innovation, quality, financing, and market access. The applied model recommends using plant fiber as a raw material for textile production, as it also greatly benefits the rural sector's economy.