La incidencia de las exportaciones de productos primarios en el crecimiento económico del Ecuador. El caso del sector minero, período 2000 2022.

Abstract

Abstract: This research analyzes the impact of the mining sector on Ecuador's economic growth (2000-2022). with the aim of quantifying the relationship between mining exports and GDP. Methodologically, a quantitative and correlational approach is adopted, using official time series to estimate a Newey-West model, which allowed for the correction of the detected serial autocorrelation and ensured the robustness of the estimators. The results confirm a positive and significant relationship, with an elasticity of 0.88. This indicates that a 1% increase in mining exports generates, ceteris paribus, a 0.88% increase in real GDP. In contrast, control variables such as foreign direct investment and international prices did not show immediate statistical significance in the short term. It is concluded that mining acts as a structural engine of growth. Therefore, it is recommended to strengthen the legal certainty and sustainability of the sector to ensure that these revenues drive economic diversification and social welfare.