Despoblación escolar en zonas rurales del Ecuador: Análisis de la disminución de la matrícula escolar (2011 - 2023), provincia de Cotopaxi.

Abstract

Abstract: School depopulation in rural areas of Ecuador is a structural problem related to demographic changes, rural-to-urban migration, and territorial inequalities in access to education. This research analyzes the decline in rural school enrollment between 2011 and 2023, with emphasis on Cotopaxi, in order to identify temporal and spatial patterns and recognize educational territories at risk. Using a longitudinal quantitative approach, records from the Ministry of Education and statistics from INEC were used, applying multilevel models with a province-canton-parish structure and incorporating year as a predictor. The results show a sustained decline in rural enrollment, with an initial decrease between 2014 and 2016, stagnation between 2017 and 2019, an abrupt disruption in 2020 due to the pandemic, and a partial recovery between 2021 and 2023, without returning to initial levels. The negative annual coefficient indicates an approximate 3% reduction per year. In addition, strong territorial inequality is observed, since only a few parishes concentrate enrollment. It is concluded that educational policies with a territorial justice approach are required to strengthen rural schools.