Evaluación del riesgo de liquidez mediante simulación Monte Carlo en la Cooperativa de Ahorro y Crédito Pilahuin Tio Limitada. Año 2025

Abstract

Abstract: This study assesses the liquidity risk of Cooperativa de Ahorro y Crédito Pilahuin Tio Limitada for the year 2025, using the Monte Carlo simulation technique as a quantitative forecasting analysis tool. Therefore, the study focuses on analyzing the main liquidity indicators established by the current regulations of the Superintendency of Popular and Solidarity Economy, which are: general liquidity, first and second line structural liquidity, and the minimum liquidity index. The methodology used is quantitative, based on the analysis of financial information for the period 2020 2024, which allowed for the modeling of probabilistic scenarios under normal and financial stress conditions. The results obtained show the existence of exposures to liquidity risk that may affect the timely fulfillment of financial obligations in the event of adverse events, highlighting the importance of strengthening control, monitoring, and preventive management mechanisms. Finally, the study contributes technical elements for strategic decision-making and financial planning for the cooperative, contributing to its sustainability within the popular and solidarity financial system.