Gestión integrada de recursos hídricos. Caso de estudio: Evaluación de la respuesta hidrológica de la Cuenca Hidrográfica del Río Pindo, Provincia de El Oro, ante los cambios en el uso del suelo y el cambio climático

Abstract

Abstract: The impacts of climate change and anthropogenic processes on a watershed significantly affect water resources, making it necessary to implement efficient and planned management of these resources. This study developed a hydrological model for the Pindo River Basin, located in the province of El Oro, applying the soil moisture method, which is widely used in water balance studies. The calibrated model yielded a Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) coefficient of 0.50, indicating acceptable performance and allowing the hydrological dynamics of the basin to be adequately reproduced in comparison with the observed flows during the analysis period. Based on this model, a projection was generated for the year 2030, considering precipitation and temperature trends, as well as potential changes in land use and land cover. The projection showed lower flows in the wet season and higher flows in the dry season, due to the identified precipitation trends. These changes could alter water availability, compromise ecological dynamics, and hinder sustainable resource management in the basin, even though forested areas increased their extent during the evaluated period.