Despoblación escolar en zonas rurales del Ecuador: Análisis de la Disminución de la Matrícula Escolar (2011-2023), en la provincia de Imbabura

Abstract

Abstract: The school depopulation in rural areas of Ecuador, with an emphasis on the province of Imbabura, constituted a complex phenomenon, linking demographic transformations, institutional decisions, and territorial inequalities. The research will be carried out through a mixed approach, predominantly quantitative, through the analysis of secondary information, supported by territorial analysis models. Multilevel models were used to analyze the variability of enrollment at three hierarchical levels: parish, canton, and parish, with the dependent variable estimated logarithmically from the total number of students. The results showed that the decrease in rural school enrollment did not respond homogeneously to a general demographic trend, but was concentrated in certain parishes of the province of Imbabura, influenced by processes of restructuring the educational offer (such as the closure and merger of rural educational units). It was concluded that rural school depopulation, in the case of the province of Imbabura, was the result of the interaction between population factors and educational policy decisions, which highlights the need to implement differentiated and territorially contextualized educational policies that guarantee access and school retention in rural areas.