Análisis integral de rentabilidad en escenarios futuros: Un enfoque combinado de series temporales y Monte Carlo aplicado al modelo DuPont para la empresa Industrial Pesquera Santa Priscila S.A. Año 2025

Abstract

Abstract: This research projects and analyzes the future profitability of Industrial Pesquera Santa Priscila S.A., Ecuador's leading aquaculture company. The objective is to provide its management with technical, qualitative, and quantitative tools that optimize managerial decision-making in the face of constantly changing conditions in a dynamic market such as the aquaculture sector. The DuPont analysis was applied, decomposing ROE into net margin, asset turnover, and financial leverage; an ARIMA model was used to project revenues; a Monte Carlo simulation with 1,000 iterations was employed to model probabilistic scenarios; and a Tornado Chart was used to identify factors impacting equity returns. Based on audited financial statements from the 2014-2024 period, sustained growth in revenues and profits was observed, with ROE varying between 5% and 30%. ARIMA estimated average revenue growth of 18%, while Monte Carlo projected equity returns between 24.47% and 40.37%, with a 75% probability that ROE will exceed 30% over the projected horizon. Financial leverage proves to be the primary profitability multiplier. An optimistic scenario is concluded, subject to limitations arising from data availability and exposure to non-modelable exogenous events.