Modelación de configuraciones electorales en Ecuador con datos digitales y convencionales 2017 - 2023

Abstract

Abstract: This paper presents a series of models that analyze voting patterns in a highly volatile environment like Ecuador. In this context, structural and historical factors make electoral events independent rather than isolated. One of the elements the models identify as a dominant predictor is the presence of a specific candidate over a continuous period, demonstrating the presence of political personalism. Furthermore, elements such as digital attention and socioeconomic variables leave voters emotionally predisposed to a retrospective reward or punishment vote, supporting the ruling regime based on current conditions, or punishing it if these conditions are not optimal. However, when the candidates' names are removed from the model, the most significant factor is the presence of full employment, followed by historical indigenous cleavages.