Evaluación de riesgo de liquidez mediante simulación Monte Carlo en la Cooperativa de Ahorro y Crédito Artesanos Ltda. 2025

Abstract

Abstract: This study assesses liquidity risk at Cooperativa de Ahorro y Crédito Artesanos Ltda. in 20205 using stochastic techniques based on its main cash flow indices, with Monte Carlo simulation and sensitivity analysis as its main tools. The methodology uses a quantitative, descriptive, and applied approach, based on the analysis of secondary data from the Superintendence of Popular and Solidarity Economy (SEPS) for 2020 to 2024. The identified vulnerability is the Minimum Liquidity indicator, which shows a probability of regulatory non-compliance of more than 5%. In contrast, the General Liquidity and First-Line Liquidity indicators show a controlled risk and exhibit a high dependence on available funds. The recommendations to mitigate this situation prioritize encouraging the migration of these to time deposits without significantly increasing the passive rate and formalizing as a policy the probabilistic thresholds indicated in the conclusions, which should serve as an early warning to the Cooperative's Assets and Liabilities Committee (ALCO)