Despoblación escolar en zonas rurales del Ecuador: Análisis de la disminución de la matrícula escolar (2011-2023) en la Provincia del Azuay

Abstract

Abstract: This research addresses school depopulation in rural areas of Ecuador, with a specific focus on the province of Azuay, analyzing the decline in school enrollment from 2011 to 2023. The study employs the econometric methodology of a multilevel or hierarchical statistical model, which identifies the territorial and temporal variations that explain the decrease in enrollment, highlighting determining factors such as migration, poverty, and inadequate accessibility, especially in contexts of geographic dispersion and low population density. The findings reveal an annual rate of decline of 1.92% in rural school enrollment, higher than the national average of 1.25%. The results underscore the importance of designing targeted and contextualized public policies, along with integrated strategies that strengthen rural education, improve the socioeconomic conditions of rural communities, and promote sustainable development in the rural areas of the province of Azuay.