Evaluación del riesgo de liquidez mediante simulación Monte Carlo en la Cooperativa de Ahorro y Crédito Mushuc Runa Ltda. Año 2025

Abstract

Abstract: This study analyzes the liquidity of a financial cooperative as a key determinant of institutional reliability and managerial decision‑making. The research evaluates liquidity risk for the year 2025 using a Monte Carlo simulation model implemented through the Risk Simulator software. The model is based on 5,000 trials applied to the institution s balance sheet accounts from 2020 to 2024, which constitute the general liquidity ratio, first‑ and second‑tier structural liquidity ratios, and the minimum liquidity indicator. This approach makes it possible to identify the internal financial variables that influence liquidity and to estimate the probability of different scenarios occurring. The results indicate that the Cooperative s liquidity does not exhibit significant deviations, maintaining an average general liquidity level of 0.32% across all simulated scenarios. The findings highlight that liquidity is a decisive factor for a Cooperative seeking to project itself as a trustworthy financial institution, particularly when aiming to attract new members.