Análisis integral de rentabilidad en escenarios futuros: Un enfoque combinado de series temporales y Monte Carlo aplicado al modelo DuPont para la empresa Procesadora Nacional de Alimentos C.A. PRONACA. Año 2025

Abstract

Abstract: This research is based on the study of a future profitability analysis model for the company Procesadora Nacional de Alimentos PRONACA. A combined ARIMA time series approach was used to forecast financial performance and future profitability. The DuPont model was applied to explain the company's return on equity through net margin, asset turnover, and financial leverage. A Monte Carlo model was also used to adjust the risk distribution and project the company's trajectory. Finally, a Tornado Chart sensitivity analysis was performed to identify which changes in the main variables, as determined by the analysis, should be the focus of management for sound decision-making. This combination of methodologies helped to more accurately predict the company's profitability behavior. The main result was the identification of the most sensitive variables affecting profitability, such as net liabilities. This indicator is crucial for decision-making, enabling financial strategies to be geared toward operational efficiency.