Análisis integral de rentabilidad en escenarios futuros: Un enfoque combinado de series temporales y Monte Carlo aplicado al modelo DuPont para la empresa HOLCIM. Año 2025

Abstract

Abstract: This degree work focuses on analyzing the results of the future profitability of Holcim Ecuador S.A., the objective is to provide technical, qualitative and quantitative tools to the company's financial management. The DuPont analysis was applied, the ROE was decomposed into its components: net margin, asset turnover and financial leverage, in the same way to find the ROA, dividing the net profit by the total assets, then we used the ARIMA model for income projection, and the Monte Carlo simulation with 10,000 iterations to model probabilistic scenarios with their respective confidence intervals and, finally, with the Tornado Chart sensitivity analysis we were able to find the elements most representative in the return on equity. In conclusion, the ARIMA (1,0,0) model was validated as the most appropriate, as it demonstrates a good fit to the historical data, an adequate explanatory capacity and complies with the principle of parsimony, avoiding unnecessary complexity and facilitating the interpretation of the results.