Migración y desarrollo: Análisis de las remesas en Ecuador periodo 2007-2023 y su incidencia en la pobreza.

Abstract

Abstract: Traditionally, remittances have represented a significant source of income for thousands of Ecuadorian households, especially during periods of global economic instability, such as the 2008 financial crisis or the abrupt slowdown caused by the recent COVID-19 pandemic. Despite their importance, the academic debate on whether remittances effectively reduce poverty or promote national development remains open and inconclusive. In this context, this study aims to provide empirical evidence on the impact of remittances on income poverty and economic growth in Ecuador over the period 2007 2023, allowing for the observation of these variables under conditions of heightened vulnerability. To achieve this objective, an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model was employed, enabling the analysis of both short- and long-term relationships between remittances, poverty, and control variables such as unemployment and inflation. The findings indicate that, in the short term, remittances act as a meaningful and statistically significant financial buffer for households. However, this effect weakens in the long run, requiring careful interpretation of the results. Additionally, the evidence suggests that migrants maintain strong ties with their families, as remittance flows tend to increase rather than decline during times of crisis. Overall, while remittances help ease immediate economic pressures, they do not replace the need for public policies aimed at strengthening formal employment and fostering sustainable, internally driven economic.