Análisis predictivo de la inversión extranjera directa y su impacto en la explotación de minas y canteras en Ecuador, periodo 2000 2024.

Abstract

Abstract: This research describes the behavior of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in the mining and quarrying sector in Ecuador during quarterly periods between 2000 and 2024, and proposes a forecasting model based on macroeconomic variables. A quantitative approach is used with exploratory analysis techniques, descriptive statistics, correlation, and VAR modeling, incorporating as logarithms in the FDI of the mining and quarrying sector, the sectoral Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and country risk, while the Inflation variable is in relative terms. Through the findings obtained, it is evident that when there is economic growth accompanied by macroeconomic stability, it influences the attraction of foreign direct investment in the mining and quarrying sector. This phenomenon is consistent with the nature of the sector, due to the high investment costs and long recovery periods. The validity of the applied model was established through statistical analyses and causality tests. This study provides a technical tool for strategic planning in the mining and quarrying sector. However, its projections should be interpreted with caution due to the high historical volatility of FDI, and it is suggested to periodically update macroeconomic assumptions.