Análisis integral de rentabilidad en escenarios futuros: Un enfoque combinado de series temporales y Monte Carlo aplicado al modelo DuPont para la empresa Cervecería Nacional año 2025.

Abstract

Abstract: This paper analyzes the future profitability of Cervecería Nacional using a quantitative approach, employing time series models, Monte Carlo simulation, and the DuPont model. The study was developed using historical sales series and financial parameters such as ROA and ROE for the period 2010 to 2024. The ARIMA model allowed future revenues to be projected with an appropriate adjustment and complemented by Monte Carlo simulation that incorporated the uncertainty of the economic environment, showing different possible scenarios. The results show that profitability does not depend on revenue growth but also on adequate financial management, which is achieved by strengthening planning and decision-making under scenarios of uncertainty and economic change. Based on rigorous simulation models, senior management will be able to design strategies linked to profitability management with sustainable growth and leverage.