Evaluación de la vulnerabilidad climática del hábitat del oso de anteojos (Tremarctos ornatus)

Abstract

Abstract: This study assessed the climate vulnerability of the spectacled bear (Tremarctos ornatus) in Ecuador using a combined climate sensitivity and exposure analysis with the CENFA package. The results show that the species is heavily dependent on montane and cloud forests, ecosystems highly sensitive to variations in temperature and precipitation, which increases its risk from climate change. Critical areas were identified where high niche sensitivity coincides with significant future exposure, especially in fragmented páramo zones and ecological corridors such as Llanganates Sangay and Podocarpus, suggesting possible altitudinal shifts and a reduction in suitable habitat. Although uncertainties exist in climate modeling, the patterns detected provide robust evidence for land-use planning and the management of the National System of Protected Areas. The study highlights the urgent need to implement ecological adaptation measures, such as the restoration of cloud forests, the strengthening of mountain connectivity, and the prevention of anthropogenic pressures in vulnerable areas. Taken together, this research provides a key scientific basis for guiding conservation strategies in the face of climate change.