Crecimiento y desarrollo económico en Ecuador 2000 - 2022 Una aproximación emprírica a las dos caras del progreso.

Abstract

Abstract: Between 2000 and 2022, Ecuador's GDP per capita grew by 54.5%, while its Human Development Index (HDI) only advanced by 13.2%. To analyze this gap, a multiple linear regression model was estimated using Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) in Stata 17, controlling for variables such as inequality, social spending, remittances, oil prices, unemployment, homicides, and public debt. The results reveal that economic growth contributed to well-being, but with a low elasticity. The price of oil showed an independent negative impact, and the boom period (2007 2014) was not statistically significant. This demonstrates that the progress was not structural, but rather dependent on temporary external conditions: Ecuador "rented" well-being. Finally, it is noted that the disparity in growth rates does not imply a direct mathematical equivalence, as GDP is an unlimited flow while the HDI is a bounded index (0 1) subject to diminishing returns. Nevertheless, the gap provides qualitative evidence that improvements in well-being did not keep pace with productive expansion.