Despoblación escolar en zonas rurales del Ecuador: análisis de la disminución de la matrícula escolar en Guayas (2011 - 2023).

Abstract

Abstract: This study examines rural school depopulation in the province of Guayas, Ecuador, between 2011 and 2023, building on the idea that the phenomenon is not uniform but strongly shaped by territory. Using hierarchical multilevel models (province, canton, and parish), estimated from Ministry of Education enrollment data and processed in Stata, the total variance in rural enrollment was broken down to determine how much of it is explained by regional differences. The findings show that rural enrollment nationwide declines by an average of 1.25% per year, while in Guayas the drop is sharper, at 1.45% annually, although patterns vary widely across cantons: some, like Daule or Samborondón, hold steady or even grow, while others, such as Balao or Naranjal, show marked declines. Nearly all the variation is explained by territorial belonging, confirming that rural educational inequality in Guayas is, above all, a local phenomenon.