Detección de cambios en la cobertura del suelo en contexto de COVID-19 (2019-2025) y su incidencia en la vegetación y recursos hídricos de la Amazonía nororiental ecuatoriana mediante teledetección

Abstract

Abstract:The COVID-19 pandemic altered human activities and reduced pressure on Amazonian ecosystems. This study assessed land cover changes during the 2019‑2025 period in the provinces of Sucumbíos and Orellana (Ecuador), using Sentinel‑2 L2A imagery processed in QGIS through supervised classification, NDVI and NDWI spectral indices, and multitemporal change detection with raster calculator, complemented by the Mann‑Kendall test to evaluate trends across four functional categories. Results showed that during lockdown (2019‑2023), Natural Vegetation increased by +4,944.59 km², while Intervened Vegetation and Impervious Surfaces decreased by -3,136.71 km² and -1,706.87 km²; in the post-pandemic period (2023‑2025), Natural Vegetation lost 930.89 km², although the overall balance (2019‑2025) yielded a positive net gain of +4,081.26 km², indicating an ecological "respite" that partially persists. The Mann‑Kendall test did not detect significant trends (three years), but the directions of change were consistent with the balances. The study shows that lockdown enabled a temporary vegetation recovery, but post-pandemic reactivation is reversing these benefits, with implications for water regulation. The applied methodology is based on open data and free software; hence it is replicable and low-cost, and its adoption is recommended for continuous monitoring especially for large areas.